Real Estate Inventory Trends – The Market Is Changing!

How do you know where you real estate market stands? You know what I mean, are you getting stronger or are you getting weaker? The best measure that I know to measure relative strength of a real estate market comes from observing inventory trends.Inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market seems to be in the early stages of a market turn. How can I make such a statement? Well, it comes from the daily measurement of homes in Tallahassee. I measure homes coming on the market and compare them to homes leaving the market (homes that sell, listings that expire or are canceled).

I started measuring Tallahassee housing inventory this year (2008) and look forward to where I have data for more than one year. Currently, I can tell you the 30 day housing trend in Tallahassee and all the way out to the 180 day housing trend in Tallahassee.

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 30 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 30

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been 6 fewer each day for the past 30 days. This is good!

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 60 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 60

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been nearly 5 fewer each day for the past 60 days. This is good!

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 90 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 90

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been nearly 3 fewer each day for the past 90 days. This is good! That means that over the past quarter, inventory is dropping.

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 120 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 120

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been nearly 2 fewer each day for the past 120 days. This is good! That means that for the past four months, inventory has been dropping.

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 150 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 150

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been barely fewer each day for the past 150 days. This is good! That means that over the past five months, inventory is dropping.

Tallahassee Home Inventory – 180 Day Trend

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory 180

This chart shows that, on average, the number of homes on the market has been growing less than 1/2 of a home per day for the past 180 days. This is not good, but the short-term trend seems to be dropping this figure each day.

Tallahassee Home Inventory – Relative Trend Comparison

Graph of Tallahassee Home Inventory All Homes

This chart summarizes everything. From the bottom up, we see that the short-term trends show reducing inventory. The longer the trend, the less inventory is reduced until we get to the 180 day trend, where inventory continues to grow. Time will tell if we’ll see that drop below the zero line. Everything that we can see from the shorter-term trends indicates it will within the next week or two.


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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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